In such a scenario, Russian public opinion could turn against Putin. British ministers predict a long-running “quagmire”, with Russia suffering significant casualties. The US and UK have not ruled out arming resistance fighters, as during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Ukraine’s armed forces will not be easily vanquished. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea. Does Vladimir Putin have a plan B?Īnalysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. British officials predict “horrendous” suffering. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Key targets would include the presidential palace, parliament, ministries, media outlets and the Maidan Nezalezhnosti – the symbolic site of Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolutions. The primary aim would be the rapid capitulation of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv and the “neutralisation” of its elected leaders.
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